Looking Forward, Game of Thrones Season 8: The Officially Unofficial Death Odds

It’s Game Week. Ask, and ye shall receive.

“There is only one God, and his name is Death Odds. And there is only one thing we say to Death Odds: ‘Today!’”

It is difficult to fathom that our journey together, at least as far as the original GoT is concerned, is almost over. Would you believe me if I told you that a death or two in the final six episodes is probable?

Welcome to the Official Death Odds for the final season of Game of Thrones: Often imitated. Never duplicated. Accept no imitations.

Here is where we break down the numbers and this time, a man has included actual betting lines on both who is likely to die first and odds of death prior to the final whistle, coupled with horribly misguided Oz conjecture. This is also the post where we encourage dissenting opinion. So, let’s blow it up Cersei…

Disclaimer #1: I remain Unsullied by oath, and this area is a spoiler-free zone. All conjecture is purely based on uneducated, show-viewing only guesstimates, so take them for what they are worth. If you or yours are in possession of insider-trading information on who may or may NOT make it through the final season (or first episode), please keep that information classified.

Disclaimer #2: There have been no scientific studies conducted (that I am aware of) that measure the outcomes of all past Oz-contrived Death Odds, but I can promise you that it’s probably not good. This is merely for entertainment and harmonious argumentative purposes only.

ALSO, and most importantly, the links supplied are merely for citation. We at WotW are not in cahoots with any company that is attempting make money off of ill-advised betting, especially as it relates to a TV show. My advice would be, DON’T.

So here is how we will proceed:

Depending on where you live and how often you partake in gambling activities, understanding odds can be somewhat confusing. So, I’ll simplify it by converting it to a percentage. Such a conversion would look like this (using AeJon Snow as an example):

Who Will Die Outright

AeJon Snow: Odds Fraction: 1/1 = Odds Decimal: 2 = American figure: +100 = implied probability of death: 50.0%.

We will eliminate the “odds decimal” and the “American figure” as they were only shown as variant measurement of betting odds and are not needed in the conversion process anyway.

For those who remain incognizant as it pertains to betting, we’ll go with percentages for this important (sarcasm), non-peer reviewed study of fictional character fatality probabilities.

The IPOD is the “implied probability of death” at any point during Season 8 which means, yeah… your favorite character possibly won’t be living happily ever after working at the Westerosi Pig Shit Farm when all is said and done. Those odds are offered from Betvictor.

The FTP (First to Perish in S8) odds were gathered up from Betonline. Of course, this is where you offer up your hard-earned cash trying to figure out which major or minor named character a group of writers decided will be the first to bite the dust.

Hmmm… wonder if D&D can bet on this.

Anyway, these lines change (often) as new information becomes available and fluctuate depending on theory, opinion, clues from interviews, probably a leak here and there, and most importantly the amount of money being wagered on any particular character. I am only the messenger of what was out at the time of this publishing. They have probably changed today.

So, here we go. Disagree as you like in the comments. That’s why I write it.

AeJon Snow

IPOD (Implied Probability of Death): 1/1, 50.0%

FTP (First to Perish in Season 8): 66/1, 1.5%

You know there is going to be a shitload of bloodshed if the Prince that Was Promised to Ygritte is sitting at a 50/50 shot at living. But GoT has taught us that it don’t matter what your name really is, or who your mom was, or how many aunts you’ve slept with. No one is safe.

The story as of late has been largely dedicated to the journeys of both Jon and Dany. Now that those roads have converged, and considering the overall history of this tragic exploit, you have to believe that we will not be subjected to a Disney-esque conclusion; one that would involve Jonaerys skipping into the sunset with their baby Wolfasaurus in tow. So, prepare yourselves now.

Oz Conjecture: He gon’ die.

If Jon were to actually be alive and take the Iron Throne at the end, I have this mental picture of him sitting on it much like Conan the Barbarian was at the end of the embattled film, Conan the Destroyer: alone, miserable, and asking himself what the hell it was all for. Surely, that’s not where we are headed (and stop calling me “Shirley.”)

Dany Targaryen

IPOD: 1/4, 80%

FTP: 50/1, 2%

Dany’s probability of death is relatively high compared to AeJon indicating that the odds makers believe that Jon is a much safer bet on making it through the conflict alive. Her FTP is the lowest with the exception of Jon and tied with Jaime showing that the odds of Dany being killed first in S8 are basically non-existent.

Oz Conjecture: Much to the chagrin of the Dany-Haters, she gon’ live. And so will AeJon II when he is born. Dany will remember the sacrifices Jon made and will shape a world of peace, learning from her past mistakes, and forming a peaceful union among the kingdoms while all of us man-bun lovers will be crying in our coffee Monday morning following the conclusion.

Euron Greyjoy

IPOD: 1/40, 97.6%

FTP: 6/1, 14.3%

Theon Greyjoy

IPOD: 1/2, 66.7%

FTP: 4/1, 20%

Yara Greyjoy

IPOD: No odds

FTP: 9/4, 30.8%

The oddsmakers don’t like the Greyjoy’s chances of survival and frankly neither do I. They don’t necessarily think that Euron will go first, but they are almost positive he will perish before the season runs out, which is probably correct.

Theon’s FTP is getting on up there in comparison with the other players on the list, yet his IPOD is only 66.7% which is not horrible odds considering the game being played and where he is headed.

But tied for the top of the FTP out of every major/minor left in Westeros is Yara. Trying to pry into the heads of odds makers is an act of futility, but we can assume she is tied for highest because (a) she’s currently in captivity, and (b) she hasn’t been shown in the trailer or any season 8 photos as of this post. Still, I ain’t buying it and I don’t know if IPOD is either since she wasn’t even listed.

Oz Conjecture: Euron and Theon: They gon’ die. Yara: She gon’ live.

Theon has an arc to fulfill which is probably going to look something like him sacrificing and vindicating himself for either Yara’s life or one of the Starks after the shit he pulled on them in S2. Euron is a goner but won’t be first considering he is bringing back the Golds and will probably be Cersei’s right-hand man now that Jaime (who doesn’t have a right hand anyway) is gone. Yara will carry on the Greyjoy name and lead the Iron Islands into the future, as it should be.

Cersei Lannister

IPOD: 1/40, 97.6%

FTP: 20/1, 4.8%

Jaime Lannister

IPOD: 1/10, 90.9%

FTP: 50/1, 2%

Tyrion Lannister

IPOD: 1/2, 66.7%

FTP: 40/1, 2.4%

Cersei and Jaime are both sporting an IPOD over 90% which probably won’t surprise anyone reading this. I admittedly didn’t think Cersei would make it past Season 7 to be honest, so my conjecture on her is null and void. I’ll just say this… if she is still sitting on the damn throne in seven weeks, then we’ve all been duped. And I wouldn’t put it past the show runners or GRRM.

Jaime has an arc to finish. In S4, Joffrey points out that the Book of Brothers has very little written about Jaime which stands out to me as the most damning evidence that he will have at least one historic feat during the season, although it will likely cost him his life. The Kingslayer will be redeemed, and it will be tragic, and we will cry.

Tyrion is the wild card here. With an IPOD of just under 67%, the odds makers give him a much better chance at survival than his brother or sister. There has been an abundance of speculation about Tyrion possibly betraying Dany which is believable considering that he and Dany didn’t have the best Season 7 together. But how would this transpire now that Jaime will be in the North? Hmmm….

Oz Conjecture: Jaime gon’ die, and however his death occurs is going to push Tyrion over the edge into a betrayal. I think Tyrion lives, but it will be somewhere other than Westeros and lonely by the end of the season. I’d love to see Tyrion live happily ever after, so I hope I’m wrong.

Oh, and Cersei? I abstain.

Arya Stark

IPOD: 11/8, 42.1%

FTP: 28/1, 3.4%

Sansa Stark

IPOD: 5/2, 28.6%

FTP: 33/1, 2.9%

Bran Stark

IPOD: 2/1, 33.3%

FTP: 66/1, 1.5%

Considering how low the IPOD’s are on the remaining Stark kiddos, the odds makers believe there is a real shot that all three will somehow survive the Great War.

I respectfully disagree. This is not Full House Stark. This is Thunderdome.

Oz Conjecture: Three Starks enter. Two Starks leave. One of them is going to die. The question is… which one.

Your guess is probably better than mine but if I had to put money on it (which I won’t), it would be Arya.

Sansa’s arc has essentially been a coming-of-age story set in a horrific environment in which she has been forced to learn tough lessons through traumatic experiences. And I don’t think we are finished seeing her progression into the kind of leader she will become. If I’m right about AeJon and Arya, coupled with what I’m about to theorize about Bran, it will be up to Sansa to continue the Stark legacy which I maintain would be a good thing. Don’t misinterpret though… Sansa has never been one of my favorite characters, but I don’t hate her. If you go back and watch her evolution through the seasons with fresh eyes and a clear mind, you will better understand why she is who she is, why she made the mistakes she made, and will realize that her character is still not a finished product. They’ll finish it. She will live.

Bran v.3ER is a study by himself. We could fill up this entire website with theories on what the hell is really going on with him. I’m not going to dive in to what I think it is here (no, he is not the Night King), but I do think he has a purpose beyond the show’s conclusion and will take his rightful place wrapped in some roots under a tree when all is said and done.

By the way, both betting services have Bran as the odds-on favorite to be on the Iron Throne when the show concludes. Wanna wager on that? 4/5, 55.6%; 3/2, 40%

That leaves us with Arya who I don’t ever envision settling down and buying a ranch after the conflict is over. That’s… not her. Arya will either get on a boat to travel the world and eventually head back to Braavos or will die on a suicide mission to kill someone important wearing someone else’s face. Let’s hope for the former.

Samwell Tarly

IPOD: 11/4, 26.7%

FTP: 33/1, 2.9%

Gilly

IPOD: 11/4, 26.7%

FTP: No odds

If you are a lover and not a fighter and looking for the couple who has the best chance to make it out of the White Walker Apocalypse alive, then look no further. Sam and Gilly both sit at over 73% chance of survival which is the best among characters included in the IPOD odds. If Gilly were to perish, it would likely be a tragic case of collateral damage due to war. Sam may be forced to fight simply due to necessity, but he ain’t dying.

Oz Conjecture: They gon’ live. Sam inherits the Citadel and lives in the library. After all, this whole story is just Sam reading (or writing) a book, right?

Davos Seaworth

IPOD: no odds

FTP: 16/1, 5.9%

Melisandre

IPOD: 4/9, 69.2%

FTP: No Odds

Varys

IPOD: 1/5, 83.3%

FTP: 22/1, 4.3%

For those of us weirdos hoping for a Davos/Red Velvet spinoff (I think we came up with the working title, Davos and Mel: Living in Hell), the odds are not horribly against it. However, we do know that a sequel is not reportedly in the works.

I have no reason to suspect that Davos will die other than the fact that he is in Winterfell and everybody there is likely to die. But he has found a way to somehow persevere this long. I like his chances, and I think IPOD does as well.

Velvet and Varys are two different stories that converged at Dragonstone. Varys had his run-ins with other Velvets in Essos, and Mel tells him, “Oh, I will return dear Spider. One last time. I have to die in this strange country, just like you.” So, now she is back, for one last time, assumingly to fulfill…. something.

Oz Conjecture: Davos gon’ live. Red Velvet gon’ die.

If you really want a breakdown on Varys, I highly recommend this from @patman23. His conjecture is much more educated and well-informed.

But if you insist on the “Hot Take” of Oz, then have at it.

As I’ve told you before, Varys is a damn Warlock… he’s just abstained from the blue popsicles for a while. I have very specific reasons why I believe this, none of which probably make much sense. But it’s one of those early-season deals that never really added up to much: Pyat Pree was a freaky, blue kool-aid drinking dude in Qarth that could perform magic but was eventually toasted because he stole some dragons, which apparently make Warlocks more powerful. Varys has always had an affinity for the Targs. I wonder why. Then, there was the little blue ring pop-sucking girl who tried to murder Dany with a gangrene-infected scorpion at the beginning of S3 that never amounted to anything other than the return of Selmy. You have to believe the Warlocks were included for some reason, and Varys is your reason.

The Hound

IPOD: 4/11, 73.3%

FTP: 12/1, 7.7%

The Mountain

IPOD: No odds

FTP: 7/1, 12.5%

The Brothers Clegane. The Mountain (Dew) was not included in the IPOD which may indicate that all sources expect his demise to be inevitable alongside Cersei. The question will be, how does it happen?

If you take the FTP on both, BV clearly indicates they believe the Mountain will go before the Hound which means they project that the Hound will score more touchdowns than the Mountain during Cleganebowl. This side bet offered by BV reinforces it:

First to perish between the two:

Mountain 2/5, 71.4%

Hound 17/10, 37%

Oz Conjecture: They both gon’ die. The Hound will defeat The Mountain but will have to confront his fear of fire to do it. Later in the season, the Hound will perish protecting someone. My guess would be Sansa.

Beric Dondarrion

IPOD: 1/7, 87.5%

FTP: No odds

Tormund Giantsbane

IPOD: No odds

FTP: 9/4, 30.8%

After the doubters all figured out that Beric and Tormund did not, in fact, slide down the broken wall into certain death (huh?)at the end of S7, there was relief. But the end is coming, at least for one and as bad as I hate to say it, it’s going to be flaming lightsaber man.

Oz Conjecture: Tormund gon’ live. Beric gon’ die. They made a point to reiterate that Beric’s (almost) nine lives were done when Thoros died from frozen bear disease. His next time will likely be his last. I hope I’m wrong on this one too. Dormer has always been one of my favorites.

Tormund survives, but not to make giant babies with Brienne. After Jaime dies, he realizes that she loved another and resolves to opening a baby seal plantation helping reestablish trade and prosperity in the North following the invasion.

Jorah Mormont

IPOD: 1/8, 88.9%

FTP: 18/1, 5.3%

Gendry

IPOD: 2/1, 33.3%

FTP: 14/1, 6.7%

I’m with IPOD on this one in that Gendry is a good bet to survive if only to help keep the Baratheon bloodline intact. Maybe whoever ends up on the throne naturalizes him? Maybe they don’t. Regardless, Gendry will follow his badass father’s footsteps smashing many with his hammer this season. And in the sequel in 2034, we’ll see fat Gendry say, “bring the breastplate stretcher!!!!”

And then there is “The Man.” Ser Zone appears to be forever trapped in “friend” status thanks to Drogo, then Daario, the brief weird thing with Hizdahr, and now Manbun Targaryen. But that’s not really the point here. And this one may break my heart the worst…

Oz Conjecture: Gendry gon’ live. Jorah gon’ die. But like many others, he will redeem himself to House Mormont and Lyanna and will be remembered favorably in the annals of Westerosi History (and the Friend Zone Hall of Fame).

Brienne

IPOD: 1/1, 50%

FTP: 14/1, 6.7%

Podrick Payne

IPOD: 1/6, 85.7%

FTP: No odds

The ladies love Pod, and we still don’t exactly know why. If the Gods (and the writers) have any integrity left, they will allow Pod to live beyond the war and to claim the title of “Best Lover in Westeros.” Just kidding, but not really only because I’d like to see the Pod survive. IPOD doesn’t like his chances.

Logically speaking, you might think that Brienne’s chances of death should be higher than Pod’s. IPOD says, “not so fast.” Brienne is a skilled warrior and Pod has a hard time rabbit-skinning, so there’s that. However, you would think that Brienne will be put in harm’s way far more than Pod throughout the final season. Plus, she may be destined to save one of the Stark children, fulfilling her oath while putting herself at greater risk. Of course, if Winterfell goes down like the Hindenburg, it won’t matter one way or the other.

Oz Conjecture: The both gon’ live. But again, no colossal Tormund/Brienne babies. Tormund will test the waters a few more times. Brienne will kick his ass.

Bronn

IPOD: 1/2, 66.7%

FTP: 14/1, 6.7%

If you didn’t notice, Jaime left KL after his run-in with the Mad Queen ALONE. Ser Bronn was not with him. Maybe this was done purposefully as a symbolic moment for Jaime and Bronn just had to run and gather up his toothbrush and some personal items. But my concern is that Cersei gets to him before he leaves.

I don’t necessarily think she would kill him, although it would be merited considering their history. Rather, I think she might hire him. Bronn has made it clear that he is a sellsword and that he enjoys money, even admitting to Tyrion that he would kill a baby in its mother’s arms if the price was right. Now that Jaime is gone, it stands to reason that Bronn may be looking for other opportunities rather than going to fight a seemingly unwinnable battle. If that happens, and Bronn ends up near our heroes later, then beware.

Oz Conjecture: He gon’ die. Bronn will try to assassinate either Dany or Jon or both and someone will kill him in the process. Maybe this is Jorah’s moment.

Grey Worm

IPOD: 4/11, 73.3%

FTP: No odds

Considering the trailer and the fact that he appears to be on the front line of the shit that goes down at Winterfell, these odds are not near as high as I expected. I’d put him at about 90.

Oz Conjecture: He gon’ die. Sorry wormless Worm fans.

Night King

IPOD: No odds

FTP: 20/1, 4.8%

Who the hell knows. The assumption is that if NK lives, that means that the living are all dead and ol’ blue eyes is just sitting on the throne staring at the dead army for eternity. Exhilarating, yes? Then again, maybe that’s why HBO isn’t working on a sequel.

But maybe it’s not that simple. Maybe the Night King has a motive we are unaware of and can be parleyed with. This is where Bran’s journey likely comes to its fruition.

Oz Conjecture: I don’t have a damn clue. But there’s more to it than “Kill the Night King, win the war.” Maybe it does come down to pure simplicity. But it will be a complex path to get there.

No action listed on the following:

Lyanna Mormont: She gon’ live.

Missandei: She gon’ live too.

Hot Pie: He told Arya that he’s a survivor. Never doubt the Pie.

Robin Arryn: If he shows up, he lives.

Qyburn: He dead.

Eddison: He dead.

Meera Reed: Really hope we just get to see her again.

Jaqen: I didn’t know if he was dead or alive when he appeared on the show anyway.

Daario: To be honest, I’d be fine if we never see him again.

Edmure: If Edmure were to reemerge, it would be just to kill him off. GoT has a history. So, he dead too.

Who did I miss?

And what did I get wrong? Better yet, where are the odds makers wrong? Voice your dismay below! I’m more interested in hearing your thoughts anyway.

A man will be back soon for in-season Looking Forward, the in-season weekly schedule, Unsullied recaps and other random frolicsomeness.

Take a deep breath and prepare now, kiddos. The end is beginning, as is the HBO GoT marathon. Catch me on the twitster, and may there always be peace in your realm. -Oz

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