Saturday, January 9, 2016

A Song of Ice and Fire Theory Poll Results: Part 1!

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Hello! Welcome back to the 2015 A Song of Ice and Fire 5-Site Theory Poll! You’ve been waiting for this moment. I’ve gotten your PMs, comment replies asking when the results will come out, and now’s the moment you all (or least a few of you) have been waiting for: results to the 2015 ASOIAF Theory Poll!

Theories contain information from the books, so Unsullied beware!

Caveat

First, a caveat. Originally, I had hoped to create a massive imgur slide show showing all results. However, I realized that this would be something to the tune of 200+ images for Part 1 alone. After spending the past week trying to create images for each and every fan question, I had only progressed halfway through Part 1 of the poll. So, I decided on a different course.

In lieu of overwhelming everyone with images, I decided to publish the analytics for each site and then create images for 5 theories that show some of the more popular (or unpopular) theories or theories that display greater variance among the 5 fan-communities.

Overall Data

I know, you want the results before you piss yourself, but I am a data nerd. So, I feel the need to go over some of the data and talk a minute about value and shortfalls of these polls.

Overall, I had 9,232 responses to Part 1 of the poll split across 5 fan communities to the tune of:

  • Reddit: 5036 responses
  • Westeros.org: 192 responses
  • Tower of the Hand: 401 responses
  • Watchers on the Wall: 3424 responses
  • ASOIAF Facebook: 240 responses

Thank you all so much for voting! I was touched by all the people who cared enough to engage in this elaborate multi-part series. (Yeah, I know it was a long process.)

That said, the sample sizes for each represented only a small fraction of the userbase of each community. As an online poll, it needs to be emphasized that this is not a scientific poll. It captures a snapshot of what (>1%-4%, depending on the fan base) of you all thought about the theories presented. Still… if I were to wager a guess, I’d venture that the results below broadly represent how passionate fans of ASOIAF feel about these theories across fan communities based in part on comparing 2015’s results to 2014’s results (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3).

Now that I’ve gotten my data nerdery out of the way, I hope you haven’t pissed yourself. Let’s talk results!

Google Forms

Here’s where you can find each and every result to identity and conspiracy theories that you all (and your compatriots in the other 4 fandoms) voted on!

Sample Results

Here’s some of the responses I found fascinating:

  1. Jon Snow’s Parentage

Here, we start with some pretty consistent congruence on the part of these 5 fan communities. Over 90% of all respondents believe that Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark are Jon Snow’s parents. Now… mea culpa, when I drew up the polls, I did not include the option for Eddard Stark + Ashara Dayne as Jon’s parents. My bad. I’ll fix for next year! Here’s the results by fan community:

  • Reddit
    • Eddard Stark and Wylla: 31 (0.6%)
    • Eddard Stark and a random peasant girl: 13 (0.3%)
    • Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark: 4707 (95.1%)
    • Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne: 128 (2.6%)
    • Arthur Dayne and Lyanna Stark: 14 (0.3%)
    • Eddard Sark and the Fisherman’s Daughter: 11 (0.2%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 47 (0.9%)
  • org
    • Eddard Stark and Wylla: 4 (2.1%)
    • Eddard Stark and a random peasant girl: 1 (0.5%)
    • Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark: 165 (86.4%)
    • Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne: 9 (4.7%)
    • Arthur Dayne and Lyanna Stark: 7 (3.7%)
    • Eddard Sark and the Fisherman’s Daughter: 0 (0%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 5 (2.6%)
  • Tower of the Hand
    • Eddard Stark and Wylla: 8 (2%)
    • Eddard Stark and a random peasant girl: 2 (0.5%)
    • Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark: 370 (93%)
    • Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne: 6 (1.5%)
    • Arthur Dayne and Lyanna Stark: 4 (1%)
    • Eddard Sark and the Fisherman’s Daughter: 4 (1%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 4 (1%)
  • Watchers on the Wall
    • Eddard Stark and Wylla: 14 (0.4%)
    • Eddard Stark and a random peasant girl: 3 (0.1%)
    • Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark: 3221 (95.6%)
    • Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne: 80 (2.4%)
    • Arthur Dayne and Lyanna Stark: 22 (0.7%)
    • Eddard Sark and the Fisherman’s Daughter: 12 (0.4%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 18 (0.5%)
  • ASOIAF Facebook
    • Eddard Stark and Wylla: 0 (0%)
    • Eddard Stark and a random peasant girl: 0 (0.%)
    • Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark: 227 (95.8%)
    • Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne: 6 (2.5%)
    • Arthur Dayne and Lyanna Stark: 3 (1.3%)
    • Eddard Sark and the Fisherman’s Daughter: 0 (0%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 18 (0.5%)
  1. Aerys II Targaryen + Joanna Lannister = Tyrion

Roughly 2/3 of all respondents think that Tyrion is *not** the son of Aerys II. However, this question shows some moderate variance among fan communities.*

  1. Who is Azor Ahai Reborn?

The identity of Azor Ahai brought out a lot of answers. Jon Snow won a plurality or outright majority of the votes in each community, but many different answers were given. Regardless, there’s a degree of variance among communities for this answer with some interesting results!

  • Reddit
    • Stannis Baratheon: 50 (1%)
    • Jon Snow: 2464 (49.8%)
    • Daenerys Targaryen: 310 (6.3%)
    • Victarion Greyjoy: 9 (0.2%)
    • Aegon VI Targaryen: 5 (0.1%)
    • Rhaegar Targaryen: 31 (0.6%)
    • Jaime Lannister: 69 (1.4%)
    • Davos Seaworth: 20 (0.4%)
    • Jorah Mormont: 36 (0.7%)
    • Many different characters will be Azor Ahai Reborn or reflect Azor Ahai’s legendary characteristics: 1162 (23.5%)
    • There is no Azor Ahai Reborn: 572 (11.6%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 160 (11.6%)
    • Other: 58 (1.2%)
  • Westeros.org
    • Stannis Baratheon: 2 (1.1%)
    • Jon Snow: 74 (38.9%)
    • Daenerys Targaryen: 28 (14.7%)
    • Victarion Greyjoy: 0 (0%)
    • Aegon VI Targaryen: 1 (0.5%)
    • Rhaegar Targaryen: 2 (1.1%)
    • Jaime Lannister: 4 (2.1%)
    • Davos Seaworth: 1 (0.5%)
    • Jorah Mormont: 0 (0%)
    • Many different characters will be Azor Ahai Reborn or reflect Azor Ahai’s legendary characteristics: 39 (20.5%)
    • There is no Azor Ahai Reborn: 21 (11.1%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 15 (7.9%)
    • Other: 3 (1.6%)
  • Tower of the Hand
    • Stannis Baratheon: 1 (0.3%)
    • Jon Snow: 211 (53.3%)
    • Daenerys Targaryen: 69 (17.4%)
    • Victarion Greyjoy: 1 (0.3%)
    • Aegon VI Targaryen: 1 (0.5%)
    • Rhaegar Targaryen: 0 (0%)
    • Jaime Lannister: 2 (0.5%)
    • Davos Seaworth: 2 (0.5%)
    • Jorah Mormont: 1 (0.3%)
    • Many different characters will be Azor Ahai Reborn or reflect Azor Ahai’s legendary characteristics: 72 (27%)
    • There is no Azor Ahai Reborn: 27 (6.8%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 7 (1.8%)
    • Other: 2 (0.5%)
  • Watchers on the Wall
    • Stannis Baratheon: 19 (0.6%)
    • Jon Snow: 1992 (59.3%)
    • Daenerys Targaryen: 330 (9.8%)
    • Victarion Greyjoy: 4 (0.1%)
    • Aegon VI Targaryen: 4 (0.1%)
    • Rhaegar Targaryen: 11 (0.3%)
    • Jaime Lannister: 38 (1.1%)
    • Davos Seaworth: 10 (0.3%)
    • Jorah Mormont: 23 (0.7%)
    • Many different characters will be Azor Ahai Reborn or reflect Azor Ahai’s legendary characteristics: 217 (6.5%)
    • There is no Azor Ahai Reborn:106 (3.2%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 106 (3.2%)
    • Other: 36 (1.1%)
  • ASOIAF Facebook
    • Stannis Baratheon: 0 (0%)
    • Jon Snow: 114 (48.1%)
    • Daenerys Targaryen: 30 (12.7%)
    • Victarion Greyjoy: 1 (0.4%)
    • Aegon VI Targaryen: 2 (0.8%)
    • Rhaegar Targaryen: 2 (0.8%)
    • Jaime Lannister: 4 (1.7%)
    • Davos Seaworth: 0 (0%)
    • Jorah Mormont: 2 (0.8%)
    • Many different characters will be Azor Ahai Reborn or reflect Azor Ahai’s legendary characteristics: 49 (20.7%)
    • There is no Azor Ahai Reborn:17 (7.2%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 12 (5.1%)
    • Other: 4 (1.7%)
  1. The Grand Northern Conspiracy

I selected the GNC, because of the conflict between “Yes” responses and “Partially” responses and how that broke down by community. It’s unique to see a question that is so polarizing and close (though we’ll have cause to visit one of these questions next week which is even more divided)

  • Reddit
    • Yes: 2369 (48.2%)
    • Partially: 1876 (38.2%)
    • No: 447 (9.1%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 222 (4.5%)
  • Westeros.org
    • Yes: 68 (35.6%)
    • Partially: 94 (49.2%)
    • No: 21 (11%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 8 (4.2%)
  • Tower of the Hand
    • Yes: 150 (37.9%)
    • Partially: 163 (41.2%)
    • No: 68 (17.2%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 15 (3.8%)
  • Watchers on the Wall
    • Yes: 1490 (44.8%)
    • Partially: 1302 (39.2%)
    • No: 358 (10.8%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 175 (5.3%)
  • ASOIAF Facebook
    • Yes: 7 (33.5%)
    • Partially: 110 (47.2%)
    • No: 25 (10.7%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 20 (8.6%)
  1. Who poisoned the locusts in Meereen?

One of the more interesting results was that people are generally unsure (or don’t care) about the locust poisoner from ADWD, Daenerys IX. Still… fans convinced of one candidate or another showed some variance.

  • Reddit
    • Hizdahr zo Loraq: 947 (19.3%)
    • Skahaz mo Kandaq: 1413 (28.8%)
    • Galazza Galare: 271 (5.5%)
    • The Tattered Prince (But he was trying to poison Hizdahr, not Daenerys): 217 (4.4%)
    • Missandei: 52 (1.1%)
    • House Pahl: 229 (4.7%)
    • Gerris Drinkwater: 12 (0.2%)
    • Daario Naharis: 231 (4.7%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 1456: (29.6%)
    • Other: 83 (1.7%)
  • Westeros.org
    • Hizdahr zo Loraq: 42 (22.2%)
    • Skahaz mo Kandaq: 51 (27%)
    • Galazza Galare: 13 (6.9%)
    • The Tattered Prince (But he was trying to poison Hizdahr, not Daenerys): 7 (3.7%)
    • Missandei: 4 (2.1%)
    • House Pahl: 8 (4.2%)
    • Gerris Drinkwater: 4 (2.1%)
    • Daario Naharis: 6 (3.2%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 52: (27.5%)
    • Other: 2 (1.1%)
  • Tower of the Hand
    • Hizdahr zo Loraq: 116 (29.3%)
    • Skahaz mo Kandaq: 123 (31.1%)
    • Galazza Galare: 34 (8.6%)
    • The Tattered Prince (But he was trying to poison Hizdahr, not Daenerys): 7 (3.7%)
    • Missandei: 5 (1.3%)
    • House Pahl: 5 (1.3%)
    • Gerris Drinkwater: 1 (0.3%)
    • Daario Naharis: 15 (3.8%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 78: (19.7%)
    • Other: 2 (0.5%)
  • Watchers on the Wall
    • Hizdahr zo Loraq: 864 (26.2%)
    • Skahaz mo Kandaq: 558 (16.9%)
    • Galazza Galare: 280 (8.5%)
    • The Tattered Prince (But he was trying to poison Hizdahr, not Daenerys): 166 (5%)
    • Missandei: 44 (1.3%)
    • House Pahl: 69 (2.1%)
    • Gerris Drinkwater: 7 (0.2%)
    • Daario Naharis: 271 (8.2%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 1018 (30.9%)
    • Other: 21 (0.6%)
  • ASOIAF Facebook
    • Hizdahr zo Loraq: 61 (26.2%)
    • Skahaz mo Kandaq: 48 (20.6%)
    • Galazza Galare: 13 (5.6%)
    • The Tattered Prince (But he was trying to poison Hizdahr, not Daenerys): 12 (5.2%)
    • Missandei: 4 (1.7%)
    • House Pahl: 8 (3.4%)
    • Gerris Drinkwater: 1 (0.4%)
    • Daario Naharis: 12 (5.2%)
    • Don’t Know/No Opinion: 72 (30.9%)
    • Other: 2 (0.9%)

Other Responses, AKA Shits and Giggles

Keeping on with the strong tradition from 2014, some of the “other” answers brought me some laughs, and I hope they provide the same for you. Here’s some of the “other” responses I received:

Who is Azor Ahai Reborn?

  • Reddit: Hot Pie, Donald Trump, JOHN CENA, Littlefinger, Moon Boy, Ramsay Bolton, Ser Pounce, Timmet son of Timmet
  • Watchers on the Wall: Benjen, Ice Maul
  • Facebook: Brienne (Lots of write-ins for this one), Gendry smith and kings bastard

Who poisoned the locusts?

  • Reddit: Benjen Stark, Don’t care. Fuck Meereen, Donald J. Trump, Drogon, Euron Greyjoy, Harzoo, Harzoo?, Quentyn Martell, Reznak mo Reznak, shaykayazazaz lo podoroqaqaq, Syrio, Voltron, Tywin prior to his death. Long con in action, Who cares?
  • Watchers on the Wall: Barristan Selmy, Brown Ben Plumm, Hodor, probably fucking moon boy for all I know, Poizdar do Loqust
  • ASOIAF Facebook: i don’t know the fucking meereen names which one was the shavepate is that skahaz my guess is the shavepate he’s sketchy af

 

Thank you again for participating in the poll. It was a lot of fun to see all the results and to share them with you. And please feel free to dig through the analytics and come up with more analysis on your own. Next week, I’ll bring part 2 (Plot points, ASOIAF History and the future of the story theories) to you all. Thanks for your patience, and please let me know ways that I can improve for next year! Cheers!

BryndenBFish is the creator of the Wars and Politics of Ice and Fire Blog a blog and podcast dedicated to political and military analysis of A Song of Ice and Fire. He can be found at twitter as @BryndenBFish

The post A Song of Ice and Fire Theory Poll Results: Part 1! appeared first on Watchers on the Wall.


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